Futures Daily reported in December 8th: this year, copper prices continued the trend of 2016, the first three quarters were reported on the sunny line, the first half of the first half of the oscillation, from June to October a round of rising trend. With the advent of seasonal off-season, the fourth quarter of Shanghai copper is mainly oscillating.
The end of 2017 will usher in the peak season of metal copper consumption in the first quarter, and copper prices will fluctuate less than 30% this year. Judging from the recent trend, Shanghai copper is in a weak trend. I believe that from the medium to long term trend, copper prices are still in the bull market pattern, and the phased adjustment of copper prices is mainly affected by its seasonal impact. Of course, the earlier cumulative increase, copper prices also have the demand for technical repair, but in the whole, it did not destroy the copper price since the end of 2015.
The supply and demand pattern has not changed, and the foundation of the bull market is still in. In today's capital market, information is complex and complex, political, economic, policy, natural disasters, war, capital surface and exchange rate are all important factors that affect the variety of capital market. For the commodity market, in the final analysis or from the level of supply and demand, most of the effects are caused by the impact of supply and demand on the price fluctuations, so the supply and demand base of a variety is the most important factor in determining the long-term trend. The latest report of the international copper research organization (ICSG) showed that the global refined copper market was short of 52 thousand tons from 1 to August this year, compared with a shortage of 139 thousand tons in the same period last year.
From the supply and demand cycle of the market, the copper price is in circulation between shortage, balance, excess, balance and shortage, and copper price is also changing accordingly. From the present point of view, the continuation of the shortage state is still the foundation to support the copper price bull market. It is expected that the space for the copper price fall will be limited, and the trend of Shanghai copper in the vicinity of 50000 yuan / ton will be closely concerned.
Near the peak season of consumption, copper prices will rebound periodically. As we all know, there will be a rally in Shanghai copper before the Spring Festival. I have found that the trend of the last 16 years since 2001 has not been rising in 2006 and at the end of 2014 only (after the new year's day, but still before the Spring Festival), or There was no rebound at the end of the year, and the other 14 years showed a similar rebound or rising trend, with an average rise period of about 13 weeks, with an average increase of about 28%. In terms of the stabilization time of the disk, 8 years in 16 years reached a stage low in November and began to rebound gradually, with the maximum probability of 50%, and 5 years in December. In terms of time, copper prices were more likely to stabilize and rebound in 11 and December (historical statistical probability of 81.25%). Since the rebound before the Spring Festival is a large probability event, the author also statistics the time difference between the time of stabilization and the new year's Eve. It is found that the average time difference in 16 years is 8 weeks, 5 weeks and less than 6 years, 8 weeks and above for 10 years. It is still 10 weeks away from New Year's Eve. At the same time, it is in early December. According to the previous stabilization time prediction, the duration of this round of decline should not be too long. Most of the adjustments in November and December over the years are better buying opportunities.
Generally speaking, the fourth quarter of each year is the consumption season of metal copper, and with relatively tight funds, the copper price in the fourth quarter tends to show relatively weak trend. The first quarter was the peak season of consumption in China, with the most relaxed quarter of the year, especially in January. From the historical trend, we can draw the corresponding conclusion: since 2001, the probability of Shanghai copper rising in the first quarter is 65.22%. From the logical analysis, the price of copper should not be at the lowest point when the peak season arrives, so the price of copper will generally rebound in the low season and continue to rebound or rise at the time of the peak season. From the time point of view, Shanghai copper since the middle of October has been a downward trend of oscillation, and it is now within the time period that needs close attention, waiting for a buying opportunity after stability.
To sum up, the pattern of supply shortage supports the medium-term trend of copper prices. From the current point of time and price range, the downward trend of Shanghai copper will be limited. Next week the Fed's Conference on interest rates may be a more important time window. At present, there is still 10 weeks to go before the Spring Festival. For the consumption enterprises of metal and copper, the fall of this round will be the best time to build the warehouse at the end of the year.
